APRIL 2007 — The Analysis and Advocacy project conducted an exhaustive analysis of the HIV epidemic in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, predicting the future of the epidemic in that country if risk behaviors remain at current levels. Using the Asia epidemic model developed by the East-West Center, analysts used surveillance data to show how the epidemic has moved through subpopulations and how it will likely move in the future. Findings include the following:

• The total number of people living with HIV in Ho Chi Minh City is expected to rise from 72,400 in 2006 to 89,900 in 2010 and 105,800 in 2020.
• Clients of sex workers have become the largest single group of new HIV infections. By 2005, almost 4,000 clients a year were contracting HIV. These and previous infections among men have led to an estimated 2,000 women per year being infected by their husbands by 2005.
• In 2006, there were about 4,800 new AIDS cases in Ho Chi Minh City. This will climb to an estimated 7,700 new cases in 2010.

This report is the first of several that will analyze epidemic trends and suggest effective, cost-efficient interventions.

Supported by the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through USAID, the Analysis and Advocacy project synthesizes and interprets HIV-related epidemiological, behavioral, and programmatic data to provide insight into the HIV epidemic and give decisionmakers the information they need to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of HIV responses.

The project is a partnership among international organizations and in-country agencies and partners such as national AIDS programs, ministries of health, and provincial AIDS committees. FHI, the East-West Center, and the Health Policy Initiative are the project's international partners.

Visit the FHI/Vietnam country page.